Theobalddfb
0xfd75b8dff935a077b7aeaa3941d2ea3dff41a398
- Realised P&L
- $25.04
- Volume
- $14.0k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $18.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-18? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.265 | $18.02 | −$1.02 |
| Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? · No | 0.532 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.90 |
| Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-14? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.84 |
| Saints vs. Rams · Saints | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.20 |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.87 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.44 |
| Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$372.97at 0.500Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$368.96at 0.994Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$175.30at 0.500Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6?
- +$167.24at 0.500Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$165.31at 0.500Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 03:30 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | SELL | 0.997 | $39.88 |
| 10-14 03:30 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.28 | $19.04 |
| 10-14 03:29 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | SELL | 0.002 | $0.08 |
| 09-14 07:11 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-14? | BUY | 0.22 | $4.84 |
| 09-05 05:46 | Games Total: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.34 | $18.70 |
| 08-22 07:40 | Saints vs. Rams | BUY | 0.53 | $21.20 |
| 08-10 11:33 | Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels | BUY | 0.52 | $14.56 |
| 07-15 03:08 | Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.532 | $14.90 |
| 07-03 06:47 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.31 | $7.44 |
| 06-26 02:19 | Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 28? | BUY | 0.9986433412 | $14.00 |
| 06-26 02:17 | Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.51 | $36.87 |
| 06-05 07:59 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.22 |
| 06-05 07:58 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.995 | $54.73 |
| 05-27 06:59 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? | BUY | 0.4 | $26.24 |
| 05-18 08:20 | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $33.97 |