0xfd5069317f08c0283ff85d8ab0959b83483e8221
0xfd5069317f08c0283ff85d8ab0959b83483e8221
- Realised P&L
- $-9.77
- Volume
- $152.17
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $4.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 23? · No | 0.490 | 0.505 | $2.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.765 | $1.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$3.20at 0.392Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.39at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
- +$2.03at 0.502Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 03:34 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 19:06 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 23? | BUY | 0.4899999584 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 11:03 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499998382 | $1.19 |
| 09-07 09:37 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 13:14 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 05:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-18 19:36 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 17:53 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899996998 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 09:45 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 01:41 | Will Trump say "Kamala" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 23:49 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-08 12:37 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-08 04:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 08:34 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 00:33 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |