PolyBot

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Traders

ManipulationOfRisk

0xfd47e2f30ac97571e6e68f51bf4531b108af805a

Realised P&L
$2.6k
Volume
$285.5k
Markets traded
868
Open portfolio
$3.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded868
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026? · No0.8270.943$632.86+$77.87
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31? · No0.8270.991$507.97+$83.97
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31? · No0.8710.964$287.76+$27.76
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by November 30, 2026? · No0.6370.825$271.93+$61.93
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes0.7690.795$242.90+$7.90
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026? · No0.7500.835$167.00+$17.00
Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026? · No0.9680.996$133.74+$3.74
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun by November 30, 2026? · No0.8180.935$122.34+$15.35
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31? · No0.8670.840$77.52−$2.48
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? · Yes0.8270.845$61.34+$1.34
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026? · No0.8700.915$52.59+$2.59
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by October 31? · Yes0.9590.789$41.17−$8.83
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No0.7120.815$40.06+$5.06
Iran leadership change by November 30? · Yes0.1040.075$36.15−$13.85
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? · No0.8880.962$32.48+$2.48

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-02 13:56Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?BUY0.6479999965$30.00
11-02 09:13Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?SELL0.72$18.22
11-01 20:33US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?SELL0.1955707472$6.15
11-01 13:07Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in November 2026?BUY0.9099999991$10.00
11-01 02:10Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by November 30, 2026?BUY0.64$150.00
11-01 02:08Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026?SELL0.986$20.75
11-01 02:07Will Laura Loomer be the next White House Press Secretary?SELL0.95$21.35
11-01 02:05Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?SELL0.27$9.00
11-01 02:04US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?SELL0.992$11.40
11-01 02:02Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?SELL0.983$22.69
11-01 00:12Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun by November 30, 2026?BUY0.7979671786$40.00
11-01 00:11Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by November 30, 2026?BUY0.6299999977$60.00
11-01 00:10Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?SELL0.9902394324$165.39
10-31 14:50Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun by November 30, 2026?BUY0.8299999995$67.00
10-31 14:50Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026?BUY0.7499999963$50.00