ManipulationOfRisk
0xfd47e2f30ac97571e6e68f51bf4531b108af805a
- Realised P&L
- $2.6k
- Volume
- $285.5k
- Markets traded
- 868
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded868
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$564.64at 0.764Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026?
- +$452.42at 0.579US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
- +$315.99at 0.863Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
- +$261.49at 0.141Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?
- +$251.31at 0.647Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 13:56 | Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government? | BUY | 0.6479999965 | $30.00 |
| 11-02 09:13 | Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $18.22 |
| 11-01 20:33 | US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1955707472 | $6.15 |
| 11-01 13:07 | Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in November 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 02:10 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $150.00 |
| 11-01 02:08 | Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.986 | $20.75 |
| 11-01 02:07 | Will Laura Loomer be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.95 | $21.35 |
| 11-01 02:05 | Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $9.00 |
| 11-01 02:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $11.40 |
| 11-01 02:02 | Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31? | SELL | 0.983 | $22.69 |
| 11-01 00:12 | Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7979671786 | $40.00 |
| 11-01 00:11 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999977 | $60.00 |
| 11-01 00:10 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | SELL | 0.9902394324 | $165.39 |
| 10-31 14:50 | Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999995 | $67.00 |
| 10-31 14:50 | Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7499999963 | $50.00 |