iskrem
0xfd438207e4aa774bf1f6231426ccf162f3f37d3d
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $110.2k
- Markets traded
- 210
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded210
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.899 | 0.990 | $2.9k | +$267.38 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? · Yes | 0.378 | 0.735 | $808.26 | +$392.38 |
| Swiss Open: Jaime Faria vs Stan Wawrinka · Stan Wawrinka | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| Spread: England (-1.5) · England | 0.487 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$146.00 |
| Swiss Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · Arthur Rinderknech | 0.254 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 · Under | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.00 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.00 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Spread: Morocco (-3.5) · Morocco | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Spread: Germany (-1.5) · Germany | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 · Under | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Novak Djokovic · Roman Safiullin | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Joao Fonseca · Jesper de Jong | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Coco Gauff · Claire Liu | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$544.91at 0.337Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff
- +$483.86at 0.689Wimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya Joint
- +$477.15at 0.880Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?
- +$432.46at 0.408Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton
- +$419.29at 0.878Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 06:37 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 1-7? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.52 |
| 09-05 16:47 | US Open WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova | SELL | 0.89 | $4.45 |
| 09-05 16:42 | US Open WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova | BUY | 0.649999999 | $100.00 |
| 09-05 16:39 | US Open WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova | BUY | 0.635235732 | $40.00 |
| 09-05 16:38 | US Open WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova | BUY | 0.5399999943 | $40.00 |
| 09-05 16:37 | US Open WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $10.00 |
| 09-04 18:12 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 1-7? | BUY | 0.9299999993 | $50.00 |
| 09-03 16:40 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 1-7? | BUY | 0.92 | $276.00 |
| 09-03 14:07 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 1-7? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 09-03 11:27 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 1-7? | BUY | 0.93 | $93.00 |
| 09-02 18:46 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 1-7? | BUY | 0.92 | $45.08 |
| 09-02 06:26 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 1-7? | BUY | 0.94 | $84.60 |
| 09-01 16:56 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 1-7? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 08-19 18:23 | Cincinnati Open (Doubles): Melo/Zverev vs Luz/Matos | BUY | 0.36 | $36.00 |
| 08-15 18:41 | Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin August 11-17? | BUY | 0.17 | $13.60 |