MTD
0xfd39b573bc2aa618c9bc226624e985133c1d109d
- Realised P&L
- $35.8k
- Volume
- $4.42M
- Markets traded
- 431
- Open portfolio
- $58.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded431
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.4kat 0.965Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$12.6kat 0.466Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$6.2kat 0.751Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines
- +$5.4kat 0.692Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats
- +$4.9kat 0.987Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 23:27 | Miami (FL) vs. North Carolina | BUY | 0.83 | $332.00 |
| 10-31 23:26 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $950.00 |
| 10-31 23:26 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $475.00 |
| 10-31 17:53 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $410.00 |
| 10-31 17:53 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $421.96 |
| 10-28 10:37 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 10-28 10:37 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $67.99 |
| 10-28 10:36 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $75.00 |
| 10-27 07:19 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $184.00 |
| 10-25 18:40 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.153 | $153.00 |
| 10-25 18:39 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $740.00 |
| 10-25 17:35 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $750.00 |
| 10-25 17:32 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $820.00 |
| 10-25 17:32 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $820.00 |
| 10-25 17:31 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $8.2k |