MTD
0xfd39b573bc2aa618c9bc226624e985133c1d109d
- Realised P&L
- $36.6k
- Volume
- $4.34M
- Markets traded
- 421
- Open portfolio
- $5.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded421
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.116 | $3.6k | +$2.4k |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes | 0.727 | 0.210 | $1.6k | −$4.0k |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.781 | 0.230 | $503.80 | −$1.2k |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes | 0.249 | 0.235 | $47.00 | −$2.85 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.055 | $5.50 | −$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.8kat 0.742Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines
- +$18.2kat 0.646Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines
- +$13.9kat 0.755TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils
- +$13.4kat 0.965Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$12.6kat 0.466Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 22:15 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 08-29 17:06 | Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.2025 | $4.05 |
| 08-18 01:52 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.093 | $93.00 |
| 08-18 01:52 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.093 | $93.00 |
| 08-18 01:52 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.093 | $93.00 |
| 08-17 11:52 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.2316966667 | $13.90 |
| 08-09 05:28 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $25.00 |
| 08-09 05:25 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.2485 | $24.85 |
| 08-04 18:54 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.025 | $2.50 |
| 07-27 18:12 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.026 | $2.60 |
| 07-27 17:48 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.156 | $46.80 |
| 07-22 01:42 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.143 | $42.90 |
| 07-20 15:30 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.144 | $43.20 |
| 07-20 15:29 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.083 | $33.20 |
| 07-18 22:14 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.076 | $7.60 |