ilyarchik
0xfd2d8aa6c49732ced6e97bd404921b950f40e3a1
- Realised P&L
- $-498.97
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $206.34
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B · 9z | 0.390 | 0.345 | $119.88 | −$15.64 |
| LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 4 Winner · Gen.G | 0.658 | 0.655 | $86.46 | −$0.36 |
| Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? · No | 0.827 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$82.70 |
| Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? · No | 0.318 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$107.75 |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.15 |
| Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? · No | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$302.16 |
| Will Lot 7 Henri Matisse’s “Figure décorative” sell for 15m or more? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$307.41at 0.300Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
- +$35.83at 0.850Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$16.66at 0.937Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$9.29at 0.630Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?
- +$6.60at 0.870Will Israel strike Gaza on October 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 08:27 | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 4 Winner | BUY | 0.66 | $70.62 |
| 11-01 08:26 | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 4 Winner | BUY | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 11-01 08:25 | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 4 Winner | BUY | 0.64 | $3.20 |
| 10-30 19:47 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner | SELL | 0.999 | $439.56 |
| 10-30 18:07 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.29 | $127.60 |
| 10-26 17:08 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B | BUY | 0.39 | $135.51 |
| 02-04 08:14 | Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | BUY | 0.63 | $292.87 |
| 11-19 08:40 | Will Lot 13 Ernst Ludwig Kirchner’s “Fränzi mit Pfeilbogen” sell for 3m or more? | BUY | 0.1 | $200.00 |
| 11-19 08:39 | Will Lot 7 Henri Matisse’s “Figure décorative” sell for 15m or more? | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 11-18 16:02 | Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? | BUY | 0.827 | $82.70 |
| 11-11 19:59 | Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | BUY | 0.33 | $33.00 |
| 11-07 08:16 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.54 | $479.61 |
| 11-07 08:16 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.53 | $48.05 |
| 11-01 12:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.997999998 | $200.00 |
| 10-29 22:45 | Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | SELL | 0.9944359461 | $288.38 |