EivindLunner
0xfd23bea29ac71debbab20c2e2852f5941cdc8ec4
- Realised P&L
- $4.49
- Volume
- $117.46
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $17.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 24? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.325 | $9.28 | −$0.14 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 24? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.080 | $8.09 | −$2.91 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 22? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.55 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 22? · Yes | 0.414 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.39at 0.474Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 22?
- +$1.94at 0.724Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
- +$-1.15at 0.515Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 16:36 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.3299999947 | $9.42 |
| 09-22 16:36 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.1087121781 | $11.00 |
| 09-22 16:35 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.5 | $20.89 |
| 09-22 15:36 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.5025809446 | $21.00 |
| 09-21 18:52 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.4144736692 | $6.00 |
| 09-21 10:14 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.0784615385 | $2.55 |
| 09-21 10:03 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.4616986568 | $10.00 |
| 09-21 09:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET | BUY | 0.7099999702 | $5.00 |