simalu
0xfd23b1f18f01dcb0d505e34abe19499ee918df9d
- Realised P&L
- $-21.29
- Volume
- $34.3k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $20.86
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $5.09 | −$5.09 |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $5.09 | −$5.09 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.065 | $3.90 | −$0.90 |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $3.39 | −$3.39 |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $3.39 | −$3.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.30at 0.8660 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
- +$-0.36at 0.020Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
- +$-0.43at 0.701Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$-2.94at 0.1030 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 06:00 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0163928 | $1.64 |
| 09-01 06:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.42 | $0.60 |
| 09-01 06:00 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | SELL | 0.952 | $3.29 |
| 08-31 16:03 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | SELL | 0.042 | $2.02 |
| 08-28 04:41 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 08-25 15:45 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | BUY | 0.8679999462 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 15:45 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | BUY | 0.1817350875 | $2.00 |
| 08-24 16:31 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | BUY | 0.8619998862 | $1.00 |