0xfd0f1be1b84ac1e1f3ddc554dc8c315c7579c919
- Realised P&L
- $-4.52
- Volume
- $127.42
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $6.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.994 | $2.21 | +$1.21 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.280 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.425 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $160 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.320 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.720 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $324 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.345 | $0.57 | −$0.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.25at 0.280US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$4.28at 0.329S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$3.73at 0.217Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$2.10at 0.329S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 10?
- +$1.17at 0.460US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 23:11 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:30 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:08 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:08 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on September 14? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 05:38 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $324 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 21:36 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $160 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 11:18 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 00:26 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 16:25 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 07:44 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 17:43 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 09:41 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on September 9? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 08:31 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 12:39 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 00:54 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |