Utoya
0xfd0e12e8e6f33859a247c4f764250ada6f5fd918
- Realised P&L
- $6.8k
- Volume
- $51.7k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $14.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.498Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?
- +$470.00at 0.843Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$380.00at 0.848Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
- +$300.00at 0.800Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$275.06at 0.808Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 00:51 | Will SER hold 56-58 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.81 | $114.66 |
| 09-08 23:17 | Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.941 | $109.17 |
| 09-06 11:54 | Will SER hold 56-58 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.79 | $63.20 |
| 09-04 17:25 | Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.35 |
| 09-04 17:24 | Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30? | BUY | 0.8028571429 | $50.58 |
| 09-04 17:23 | Will Les Républicains have the most seats after the French Senate Election? | SELL | 0.9694385965 | $110.52 |
| 09-02 19:53 | Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.933 | $18.66 |
| 09-02 19:53 | Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.9312222222 | $41.90 |
| 09-02 19:45 | Will SER hold 56-58 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.818331846 | $137.55 |
| 09-02 19:44 | Will SER hold 56-58 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.8 | $64.01 |
| 09-02 19:43 | Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.754166 | $75.42 |
| 09-02 19:42 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.9419770275 | $74.22 |
| 09-02 16:36 | Will Les Républicains hold 129-132 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.82 | $82.00 |
| 09-02 16:33 | Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.76 | $152.00 |
| 09-02 16:31 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.946 | $69.46 |