0xfd0aD807712728Bc5B94F277E9C469AfafA190d8-1770568437523
0xfd0ad807712728bc5b94f277e9c469afafa190d8
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $386.81
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar46.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes | 0.569 | 0.510 | $268.82 | −$31.18 |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.870 | $117.99 | +$9.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.280Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
- +$4.00at 0.960Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?
- +$0.50at 0.950Will Colton Moore win the GA-14 special election?
- +$0.50at 0.950Will Japan GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than or equal to 0.0%?
- +$0.42at 0.958Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-01 13:09 | Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.5691620416 | $300.00 |
| 05-02 11:41 | Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? | BUY | 0.284081029 | $200.00 |
| 04-30 22:45 | Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 04-28 20:03 | Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2743469172 | $100.00 |
| 04-28 20:02 | Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2599999985 | $100.00 |
| 02-24 23:07 | Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $96.00 |
| 02-10 14:14 | Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case? | BUY | 0.968 | $9.68 |
| 02-10 13:51 | Will Japan GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than or equal to 0.0%? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 02-10 13:46 | Will Colton Moore win the GA-14 special election? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 02-09 12:36 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.958 | $9.58 |
| 02-09 12:30 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.974 | $9.74 |
| 02-09 12:29 | Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |