adolfrizzler009
0xfced95f43a3d153e55bf01894f781687abfe03d9
- Realised P&L
- $3.0k
- Volume
- $126.4k
- Markets traded
- 842
- Open portfolio
- $115.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded842
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.960 | $96.00 | +$6.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.165 | $19.80 | +$2.60 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.003 | $0.18 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.091Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13?
- +$1.8kat 0.091Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25?
- +$577.89at 0.031Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 1?
- +$477.93at 0.044Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 22?
- +$445.86at 0.091Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 22:06 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |
| 08-04 21:41 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 08-04 18:58 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.15 |
| 08-04 09:37 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.65 |
| 08-04 09:02 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.77 |
| 08-03 19:06 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 08-03 18:21 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.292 | $4.38 |
| 08-03 18:03 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.301 | $10.50 |
| 08-03 10:24 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.98 |
| 08-03 10:19 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.22 |
| 08-03 03:24 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.30 |
| 08-03 01:54 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on August 3? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 08-02 22:23 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on August 3? | SELL | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 21:14 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.0045 | $0.36 |
| 08-02 20:26 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.06 |