adolfrizzler009
0xfced95f43a3d153e55bf01894f781687abfe03d9
- Realised P&L
- $4.0k
- Volume
- $146.9k
- Markets traded
- 988
- Open portfolio
- $0.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded988
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 21? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.20 | −$0.20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 23°C on September 21? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.14 | −$0.14 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 21? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.04 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.099Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25?
- +$1.8kat 0.100Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13?
- +$615.29at 0.007Will the lowest temperature in Manila be 26°C on September 16?
- +$577.66at 0.031Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 1?
- +$477.93at 0.044Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 04:29 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on September 21? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.64 |
| 09-21 04:27 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 04:27 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on September 21? | SELL | 0.007 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 04:26 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 09-21 04:19 | Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 23°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.27 |
| 09-21 04:15 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on September 21? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.50 |
| 09-20 08:18 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.662 | $6.62 |
| 09-20 08:06 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.0724312 | $3.62 |
| 09-19 19:14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 19? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.60 |
| 09-19 16:25 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on September 19? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 09-19 16:24 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on September 19? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 15:44 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.0010760358 | $0.07 |
| 09-19 08:19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 19? | BUY | 0.006 | $0.60 |
| 09-19 08:09 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on September 19? | BUY | 0.0026 | $0.26 |
| 09-19 05:56 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.0026652 | $0.27 |