cgbspender
0xfcbf904e45ec3a579180b9e038aeea9f98f5d0ef
- Realised P&L
- $-782.69
- Volume
- $63.2k
- Markets traded
- 213
- Open portfolio
- $206.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded213
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.915 | $63.95 | +$1.05 |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 15? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.400 | $50.73 | −$1.27 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? · No | 0.260 | 0.265 | $40.77 | +$0.77 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.392 | 0.365 | $37.29 | −$2.71 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.230 | $9.20 | −$0.80 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.295 | $4.48 | −$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$214.02at 0.067Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$112.69at 0.016Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
- +$112.54at 0.849Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
- +$103.16at 0.240Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
- +$68.31at 0.357Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:56 | US imports Russian diesel by November 15? | BUY | 0.4099999956 | $12.00 |
| 11-01 21:53 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $4.74 |
| 11-01 21:52 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $7.68 |
| 11-01 21:47 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $9.61 |
| 11-01 21:47 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $10.18 |
| 11-01 18:48 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.9 | $62.90 |
| 11-01 18:45 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.2599999997 | $40.00 |
| 11-01 18:44 | US imports Russian diesel by November 15? | BUY | 0.4099999984 | $40.00 |
| 11-01 18:40 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 18:40 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3915034397 | $40.00 |
| 11-01 18:38 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $20.00 |
| 10-25 23:59 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%? | SELL | 0.0049346883 | $0.97 |
| 10-25 23:18 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%? | BUY | 0.2399999992 | $47.00 |
| 10-25 23:15 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.11 | $44.89 |
| 10-25 23:12 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.134 | $2.95 |