YFGambling
0xfcb23fd110eb6982002297b98ba001765809abea
- Realised P&L
- $390.41
- Volume
- $56.9k
- Markets traded
- 240
- Open portfolio
- $106.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded240
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.386 | 0.162 | $41.83 | −$58.17 |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? · No | 0.271 | 0.278 | $40.62 | +$0.88 |
| Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.138 | 0.034 | $24.20 | −$75.80 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · No | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$128.23at 0.100Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
- +$116.93at 0.410Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
- +$99.14at 0.400Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
- +$72.84at 0.276Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$70.00at 0.740Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:02 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.64 | $95.09 |
| 10-28 07:36 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5099999949 | $30.00 |
| 10-28 06:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $114.63 |
| 10-28 06:34 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5699999967 | $50.00 |
| 10-22 11:37 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.819999999 | $100.00 |
| 10-14 22:44 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.0202016891 | $8.01 |
| 09-08 19:20 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.002 | $8.71 |
| 08-30 19:55 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.0119999988 | $10.00 |
| 08-20 14:17 | Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.2345894599 | $20.00 |
| 08-17 07:37 | Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.3032279056 | $30.00 |
| 08-08 13:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 13:56 | Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.1384512498 | $100.00 |
| 08-01 13:56 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.3860607536 | $100.00 |
| 07-26 09:13 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.00 |
| 07-13 14:53 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.1 | $71.49 |