0xFc9DCC478c40bC61A3261978bc9f8C6BCC3F9d68-1767537044643
0xfc9dcc478c40bc61a3261978bc9f8c6bcc3f9d68
- Realised P&L
- $11.1k
- Volume
- $280.2k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.017 | $2.0k | −$11.3k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.095 | $210.36 | −$99.64 |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo · Yes | 0.125 | 0.024 | $131.59 | −$556.40 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$887.68 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$73.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$757.43 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$199.99 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$136.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.6kat 0.064Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$-106.88at 0.142Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
- +$-327.09at 0.035Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
- +$-420.67at 0.113Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 16:04 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $23.00 |
| 09-26 16:04 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $300.00 |
| 09-26 16:03 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $50.00 |
| 09-26 16:03 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.1107145104 | $373.12 |
| 09-26 16:03 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999989 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 13:53 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1424273176 | $480.00 |
| 09-09 13:38 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $477.32 |
| 09-05 21:50 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | BUY | 0.1081631755 | $258.00 |
| 09-05 21:49 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $221.64 |
| 07-24 12:56 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | BUY | 0.1393359019 | $420.00 |
| 07-24 12:49 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $410.44 |
| 07-24 12:42 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | BUY | 0.1199999899 | $10.00 |
| 07-05 15:44 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.127209554 | $737.00 |
| 07-05 15:43 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1086419535 | $4.00 |
| 07-05 15:43 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $736.83 |