PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

lmdefi

0xfc505aec60a8e29bf5a97da7759fb603f1c4aa09

Realised P&L
$-469.38
Volume
$79.5k
Markets traded
209
Open portfolio
$0.96

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded209
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on September 29? · Yes0.1250.011$0.96−$9.98
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on September 11? · Yes0.0090.000$0.00−$4.80
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? · Yes0.0560.000$0.00−$5.60
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on August 12? · Yes0.0380.000$0.00−$5.24
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 7? · Yes0.0000.000$0.00+$0.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 10? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$3.03
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 18? · Yes0.0090.000$0.00−$1.90
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yes0.1490.000$0.00−$14.88
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Yes0.1390.000$0.00−$27.80
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on August 30? · Yes0.0300.000$0.00−$3.00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on July 14? · Yes0.0330.000$0.00−$5.48
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 12? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00−$0.03
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on August 24? · Yes0.0300.000$0.00−$3.00
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on September 28? · Yes0.0270.000$0.00−$2.70

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-29 16:05Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on September 29?SELL0.005$1.00
09-29 10:12Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on September 29?BUY0.018$1.80
09-29 09:50Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on September 29?BUY0.022$2.20
09-28 19:09Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on September 28?SELL0.02$2.00
09-28 18:47US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?SELL0.044$4.40
09-28 18:03US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?BUY0.044$4.40
09-28 17:29Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on September 28?BUY0.027$5.40
09-18 17:18US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?BUY0.018$5.22
09-18 11:07Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 18?BUY0.079$5.42
09-18 11:07US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?SELL0.019$5.47
09-18 01:13Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on September 17?BUY0.014$1.35
09-18 00:57Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on September 17?SELL0.003$0.90
09-18 00:57Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on September 17?SELL0.005$1.00
09-17 12:12Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on September 17?BUY0.034$3.16
09-17 12:12US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?SELL0.03$3.36