denisen
0xfc4e6cd4aa202474fd2765ada9cc9c325cd050b1
- Realised P&L
- $164.95
- Volume
- $23.8k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $76.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.160 | $76.80 | −$326.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.36at 0.799Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$58.46at 0.891Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
- +$42.87at 0.834Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?
- +$17.50at 0.935Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$5.52at 0.979Will Disney say "ESPN" during earnings call?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-05 18:20 | Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | SELL | 0.9 | $581.20 |
| 02-03 07:33 | Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | BUY | 0.8336006942 | $538.33 |
| 01-12 07:04 | Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31? | BUY | 0.8914088098 | $479.88 |
| 01-08 08:09 | Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.7992037553 | $383.52 |
| 12-02 08:43 | Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? | BUY | 0.9929999979 | $380.83 |
| 11-25 06:21 | Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.993 | $297.90 |
| 11-12 07:48 | Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | SELL | 0.964 | $192.80 |
| 11-11 05:56 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $159.55 |
| 11-03 08:25 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $2.0k |
| 11-03 07:50 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $2.0k |
| 11-03 07:46 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $159.81 |
| 10-28 09:48 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | BUY | 0.982 | $156.93 |
| 10-28 09:43 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.987 | $156.84 |
| 10-23 13:09 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.988 | $157.00 |
| 10-23 13:09 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.987 | $2.5k |