0xFc29168DBdaFE8874B5E5A3bFCD81baB347789E4-1779305592245
0xfc29168dbdafe8874b5e5a3bfcd81bab347789e4
- Realised P&L
- $8.47
- Volume
- $300.06
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $22.49
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.458 | 0.660 | $7.20 | +$2.20 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.820 | $6.95 | +$1.95 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.899 | $4.86 | +$0.86 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.048 | $2.67 | −$7.33 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.260 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.00at 0.250Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?
- +$6.51at 0.610Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
- +$2.80at 0.640Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $310?
- +$2.00at 0.240Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 1 above $315?
- +$-1.01at 0.696Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 20:34 | Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.98 |
| 10-25 20:34 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.109 | $0.65 |
| 10-25 13:25 | Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%? | BUY | 0.1531919066 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 13:11 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 09-21 15:11 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.5029999757 | $3.00 |
| 06-02 18:47 | Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 1 above $315? | SELL | 0.44 | $4.40 |
| 06-01 16:35 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.7399999593 | $4.00 |
| 06-01 16:27 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 06-01 16:27 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.5899999705 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 16:27 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.4582312089 | $5.00 |
| 05-30 09:52 | Will Apple (AAPL) close at $315-$320 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 1 – Jun 5? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 05-29 20:19 | Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $310? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.80 |
| 05-29 07:56 | Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $315? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.00 |
| 05-29 07:56 | Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $310? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 05-29 07:42 | Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |