0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274
0xfc0847fe2ea938d6e2624650eb29ef8d8142a137
- Realised P&L
- $476.3k
- Volume
- $14.76M
- Markets traded
- 1,068
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,068
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas vs. Oklahoma · Oklahoma | 0.250 | 0.215 | $1.4k | −$235.99 |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma · Texas | 0.790 | 0.785 | $31.83 | −$0.20 |
| New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers · Milwaukee Brewers | 0.223 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.15 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays · Boston Red Sox | 0.196 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.59 |
| Jets vs. Lions · Jets | 0.143 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.53 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.236 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.63 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers · Seattle Mariners | 0.349 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.14 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants · Milwaukee Brewers | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.61 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers · Baltimore Orioles | 0.204 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$72.63 |
| Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw? · Yes | 0.242 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.29 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs | 0.415 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.25 |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox · Chicago White Sox | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$263.92 |
| Kraken vs. Oilers · Kraken | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.68 |
| San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers · San Diego Padres | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.23 |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers · Texas Rangers | 0.358 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$137.7kat 0.054Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?
- +$101.2kat 0.033Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?
- +$16.7kat 0.527Will United States win on 2026-06-25?
- +$14.5kat 0.357Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
- +$9.9kat 0.091Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 20:46 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.22 | $104.94 |
| 10-10 20:45 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.22 | $118.58 |
| 10-10 20:45 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.22 | $11.88 |
| 10-10 20:45 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.22 | $38.28 |
| 10-10 20:45 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.22 | $38.28 |
| 10-10 20:45 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.22 | $153.12 |
| 10-10 20:45 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.22 | $516.12 |
| 10-10 20:40 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | BUY | 0.25 | $2.0k |
| 10-10 20:40 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | BUY | 0.25 | $801.75 |
| 10-10 20:03 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.79 | $94.01 |
| 10-10 20:03 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.79 | $374.46 |
| 10-10 20:01 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | SELL | 0.79 | $1.5k |
| 10-10 20:01 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | BUY | 0.7899999999 | $2.0k |
| 10-10 19:13 | North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh | SELL | 0.93 | $8.37 |
| 10-10 19:13 | North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh | SELL | 0.93 | $31.62 |