PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

MPIL

0xfc081d2dab43d97ee05b624e2166808ad3e96be7

Realised P&L
$-21.8k
Volume
$724.5k
Markets traded
88
Open portfolio
$3.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded88
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample44 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0440.049$970.00+$90.02
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? · No0.8990.960$726.99+$46.11
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2100.048$723.86$2.4k
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0190.025$254.00+$64.00
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes0.1870.045$246.89$777.52
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? · Yes0.4900.245$196.00$196.00
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2340.015$161.12$2.4k
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0290.021$43.49$15.57
EU dissolves before 2027? · Yes0.0440.024$32.90$29.30
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0130.015$32.45+$3.36
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0220.025$2.77+$0.37
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0580.018$0.40$0.93
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00$200.00
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0630.000$0.00$597.13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? · No0.1000.000$0.00$273.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-09 12:31Starmer out by December 31, 2026?SELL0.76$15.20
06-02 08:16MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?SELL0.993$993.00
04-28 09:54Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.039$390.00
04-28 09:49Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.013$29.10
04-28 09:22SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?BUY0.0572490725$133.01
04-17 13:32Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?BUY0.0298218961$344.72
04-08 13:11Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?BUY0.91$116.54
04-08 13:07Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?SELL0.87$117.45
04-08 13:03Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?BUY0.89$212.60
04-08 13:02Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?BUY0.88$478.12
04-08 12:28Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.185$608.41
04-07 13:20Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?BUY0.029$24.07
04-07 13:19Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?BUY0.47$144.89
04-07 13:18Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?BUY0.2$460.77
04-07 09:45Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?BUY0.31$948.30