0xfc01d98a31a9c9f1e7250a1446f696f72376115a
0xfc01d98a31a9c9f1e7250a1446f696f72376115a
- Realised P&L
- $11.44
- Volume
- $469.72
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $7.05
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 1.000 | $1.43 | +$0.43 |
| Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12? · Up | 0.680 | 0.970 | $1.43 | +$0.43 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.850 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? · No | 0.640 | 0.655 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.485 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · No | 0.680 | 0.665 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.017 | $0.04 | −$0.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.55at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$7.82at 0.390Will 200 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?
- +$6.22at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$5.29at 0.492Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?
- +$5.29at 0.492Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 09:16 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:30 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:28 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 00:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 16:36 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 08:03 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 09:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:31 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:30 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 08:13 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 08:13 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:13 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $525 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 16:13 | Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 08:05 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 23:59 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |