ferizio
0xfbfa12f41b492153884917fa5ac2b763716201aa
- Realised P&L
- $-67.93
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $1.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 12-18? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.025 | $1.23 | +$0.03 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? · No | 0.140 | 0.023 | $0.18 | −$0.94 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 October 5-11? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.99 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 October 5-11? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.95at 0.019Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?
- +$4.47at 0.100Will 'Elden Ring' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards?
- +$1.97at 0.650Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
- +$1.70at 0.370Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?
- +$1.42at 0.510Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 08:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.00398 | $0.99 |
| 10-08 07:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.0858333333 | $1.03 |
| 10-07 12:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 10-05 13:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 5-11? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.88 |
| 10-05 13:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 01-14 09:10 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.031 | $2.33 |
| 01-14 08:50 | Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech? | BUY | 0.045 | $1.35 |
| 01-13 08:24 | Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $16-19m? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.50 |
| 01-13 08:10 | Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $16-19m? | BUY | 0.038 | $1.90 |
| 12-27 11:40 | Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | BUY | 0.008 | $4.00 |
| 12-27 11:37 | Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | BUY | 0.008 | $2.40 |
| 12-20 08:55 | Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? | SELL | 0.995 | $2.91 |
| 12-18 14:46 | Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? | BUY | 0.5099999418 | $1.49 |
| 12-17 08:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? | SELL | 0.17 | $5.31 |
| 12-16 11:54 | Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.18 |