0xfBF9F5b771c4Eb84C184F5e51e83Ab9005a1E165-1772408540531
0xfbf9f5b771c4eb84c184f5e51e83ab9005a1e165
- Realised P&L
- $-66.99
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $33.51
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? · No | 0.841 | 0.957 | $11.38 | +$1.38 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.285 | $6.79 | +$1.79 |
| Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.952 | $5.80 | +$0.80 |
| Will NewJeans release a song in 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.485 | $4.41 | +$0.05 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.144 | $3.21 | −$2.79 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.135 | $1.93 | −$0.07 |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.58at 0.300Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
- +$4.20at 0.530Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$1.61at 0.949Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26?
- +$1.26at 0.799Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?
- +$1.05at 0.677Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 05:15 | Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? | SELL | 0.826 | $6.10 |
| 07-26 05:14 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2699999698 | $6.00 |
| 06-07 03:57 | Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.994 | $5.23 |
| 06-06 08:52 | Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? | BUY | 0.8410260891 | $10.00 |
| 04-26 04:00 | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BUY | 0.5899999705 | $5.00 |
| 04-03 22:13 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.06 |
| 03-13 12:35 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31? | BUY | 0.9689999964 | $4.00 |
| 03-08 05:25 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 03-07 11:44 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $4.77 |
| 03-01 10:24 | Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.022 | $0.61 |
| 03-01 10:24 | Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.5909999652 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 10:23 | Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.5889999756 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 05:42 | Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 12:50 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 12:46 | Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February? | BUY | 0.7989999712 | $5.00 |