chromatose
0xfbdae62258d92a290e556364c1479aff5bda4fae
- Realised P&L
- $-3.9k
- Volume
- $139.1k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.440 | $1.1k | +$815.82 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.155 | $280.22 | −$76.87 |
| Will the Republicans win the Colorado governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.041 | $45.30 | +$0.16 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.51 |
| Will Trump say "Roof" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21? · Yes | 0.362 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$310.22 |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.22 |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? · Yes | 0.557 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 11? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.376Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
- +$894.25at 0.834Will Kai Cenat hit 1m Twitch subscribers during MAFIATHON 3?
- +$584.41at 0.697LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)
- +$577.25at 0.833Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?
- +$505.03at 0.661Russian strike on Poland by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 05:54 | Will the Republicans win the Colorado governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.047 | $9.68 |
| 08-03 05:53 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.3108898357 | $453.84 |
| 12-02 20:20 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.1723355987 | $64.00 |
| 11-09 10:22 | LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | BUY | 0.3599999989 | $121.15 |
| 11-09 08:16 | LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | BUY | 0.7799999997 | $500.00 |
| 10-26 04:43 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.3622954331 | $230.06 |
| 10-26 04:42 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $32.00 |
| 10-22 01:33 | Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21? | BUY | 0.5460773811 | $245.00 |
| 10-21 23:59 | Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21? | BUY | 0.4988944952 | $352.00 |
| 10-21 23:45 | Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21? | BUY | 0.4996299029 | $200.00 |
| 10-21 23:36 | Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21? | BUY | 0.5210939576 | $380.00 |
| 10-21 23:01 | Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025? | BUY | 0.8677282677 | $262.00 |
| 10-21 20:01 | Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.75 | $100.00 |
| 10-17 18:26 | Israel strikes Gaza by October 31? | BUY | 0.962155867 | $338.00 |
| 10-17 17:19 | Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.038 | $3.80 |