0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060
0xfbd8c9c22ca76b3662d0e53a4f79719fdc684027
- Realised P&L
- $219.2k
- Volume
- $15.75M
- Markets traded
- 39,040
- Open portfolio
- $306.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded39,040
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration27.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$291.0kat 0.001Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$88.7kat 0.050Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$47.5kat 0.001Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$39.6kat 0.070Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
- +$37.3kat 0.029Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.996 | $4.98 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.979 | $4.89 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.978 | $26.41 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.8 | $21.60 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.71 | $19.17 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.97 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.996 | $26.89 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.49 | $13.23 |
| 08-03 03:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.78 | $6.24 |
| 08-03 03:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.98 | $7.84 |
| 08-03 03:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on August 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.99 |
| 08-03 03:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.741875 | $5.93 |
| 08-03 03:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.996 | $7.97 |