PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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0xfbce50ee50e56c5a82fb923a498d6cdd43f730be

Realised P&L
$-3.4k
Volume
$157.7k
Markets traded
71
Open portfolio
$2.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded71
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? · Yes0.8791.000$1.1k+$138.10
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · Yes0.6131.000$978.87+$378.87
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · No0.6401.000$625.00+$225.00
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes0.3170.074$117.71$382.54
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? · Yes0.2340.125$53.37$46.63
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes0.2150.011$4.89$95.11
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? · Yes0.1680.000$0.00$999.99
US recession in 2025? · Yes0.3800.000$0.00$300.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yes0.7880.000$0.00$266.33
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? · Yes0.1710.000$0.00$200.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? · No0.4940.000$0.00$880.22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? · Yes0.3200.000$0.00$100.00
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? · Yes0.3500.000$0.00$200.00
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? · Yes0.6090.000$0.00$1.2k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-08 11:18Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.2928577216$2.2k
04-07 22:44Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?SELL0.92$408.88
04-07 17:50Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?BUY0.4499999992$200.00
04-07 15:26Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?SELL0.6957391466$1.0k
04-07 14:02Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?BUY0.32$100.00
04-07 11:33Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.6174038169$4.0k
04-07 11:32US forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL0.996$4.3k
04-07 10:51Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?BUY0.4390536196$764.10
04-06 20:50Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.5699999998$500.00
04-02 21:46US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.6799999999$2.0k
04-01 19:16US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.5799999993$800.00
03-28 16:53Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?BUY0.64$400.00
03-27 21:16Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?SELL0.7912332569$1.1k
03-26 17:14Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?BUY0.8786557445$1000.00
03-25 21:33US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?SELL0.48$123.33