smap
0xfbce50ee50e56c5a82fb923a498d6cdd43f730be
- Realised P&L
- $-3.4k
- Volume
- $157.7k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $2.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.220Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$1.5kat 0.648US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$955.66at 0.677Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
- +$739.73at 0.730US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$589.84at 0.629Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-08 11:18 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.2928577216 | $2.2k |
| 04-07 22:44 | Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | SELL | 0.92 | $408.88 |
| 04-07 17:50 | Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | BUY | 0.4499999992 | $200.00 |
| 04-07 15:26 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL | 0.6957391466 | $1.0k |
| 04-07 14:02 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | BUY | 0.32 | $100.00 |
| 04-07 11:33 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.6174038169 | $4.0k |
| 04-07 11:32 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $4.3k |
| 04-07 10:51 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? | BUY | 0.4390536196 | $764.10 |
| 04-06 20:50 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.5699999998 | $500.00 |
| 04-02 21:46 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6799999999 | $2.0k |
| 04-01 19:16 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5799999993 | $800.00 |
| 03-28 16:53 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.64 | $400.00 |
| 03-27 21:16 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | SELL | 0.7912332569 | $1.1k |
| 03-26 17:14 | Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8786557445 | $1000.00 |
| 03-25 21:33 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL | 0.48 | $123.33 |