0xfbC485eE52e3314662ED589E2Ee276D7d9765F8A-1777992296648
0xfbc485ee52e3314662ed589e2ee276d7d9765f8a
- Realised P&L
- $-814.07
- Volume
- $117.3k
- Markets traded
- 229
- Open portfolio
- $38.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded229
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.045 | $9.84 | −$5.46 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? · Yes | 0.115 | 0.070 | $8.42 | −$5.35 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · No | 0.150 | 0.135 | $7.20 | −$0.80 |
| Paris curfew by October 24? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.065 | $4.64 | −$0.36 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.028 | $4.55 | −$1.45 |
| Paris curfew by October 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.080 | $4.12 | −$0.52 |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 38 and 40 million views on day 2? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get at least 40 million views on day 2? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.68at 0.409Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?
- +$28.49at 0.693Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
- +$19.93at 0.284Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
- +$18.74at 0.260Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
- +$17.08at 0.114Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 03:41 | Paris curfew by October 31? | BUY | 0.0899999992 | $4.64 |
| 10-19 03:40 | Paris curfew by October 24? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 08:56 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? | SELL | 0.0880395608 | $10.10 |
| 10-18 06:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.149999997 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 06:19 | Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.14 |
| 10-18 06:19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 10-17 07:58 | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 38 and 40 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.0416355123 | $3.00 |
| 10-17 07:57 | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get at least 40 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.0140209561 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 07:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $7.08 |
| 10-15 04:09 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? | BUY | 0.1209999997 | $12.00 |
| 10-15 04:07 | Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.36 |
| 10-15 04:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | SELL | 0.01 | $4.29 |
| 10-14 14:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.014 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 13:57 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? | BUY | 0.1110747049 | $15.00 |
| 10-14 13:55 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.039 | $8.35 |