0xFBae35e5F42A53D12BA7F58c02CDAabbEF6b54Cc-1762310664462
0xfbae35e5f42a53d12ba7f58c02cdaabbef6b54cc
- Realised P&L
- $5.47
- Volume
- $183.12
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $16.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar3.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-01 House seat? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.963 | $4.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.700 | $3.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.945 | $2.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.790 | $2.09 | −$0.11 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.565 | $1.69 | −$0.31 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? · No | 0.510 | 0.500 | $1.57 | −$0.03 |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? · No | 0.979 | 0.982 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.713 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.39at 0.700Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$1.26at 0.760Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$1.21at 0.800Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
- +$0.81at 0.808GTA 6 launch postponed again?
- +$0.50at 0.800Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 15:35 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.7399998224 | $4.00 |
| 06-27 15:34 | Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $2.00 |
| 06-27 15:27 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.978999441 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 15:24 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.9779998709 | $2.00 |
| 06-27 02:56 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.897 | $2.32 |
| 06-27 02:56 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | SELL | 0.92 | $6.90 |
| 06-15 18:50 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999904 | $1.60 |
| 06-15 18:46 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8299999792 | $2.00 |
| 06-07 14:13 | Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? | BUY | 0.9679998429 | $3.50 |
| 06-04 01:39 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | SELL | 0.962 | $3.06 |
| 06-04 01:38 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 06-04 01:33 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6699996951 | $2.00 |
| 06-04 01:33 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.7709997409 | $2.00 |
| 06-04 01:31 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.7129999201 | $2.00 |
| 05-26 00:25 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | SELL | 0.951 | $2.06 |