Vladpoutino
0xfba638c083dcd88a6711a1ffba4352c5431a1fca
- Realised P&L
- $-24.7k
- Volume
- $2.55M
- Markets traded
- 202
- Open portfolio
- $9.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded202
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.965 | 0.998 | $6.5k | +$210.57 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $1.8k | +$0.90 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No | 0.980 | 0.992 | $595.20 | +$7.20 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? · No | 0.965 | 0.983 | $414.30 | +$7.59 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.140 | 0.665 | $199.50 | +$157.50 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.600 | $166.41 | −$85.98 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.175 | $17.52 | −$66.58 |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? · No | 0.770 | 0.680 | $15.61 | −$2.07 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.0kat 0.001Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$7.5kat 0.633Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
- +$7.5kat 0.700Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$6.5kat 0.829Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$4.9kat 0.770Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 09:28 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.7k |
| 08-29 09:26 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9989735688 | $12.5k |
| 08-28 09:55 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.983 | $3.2k |
| 08-25 07:51 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.87 | $51.21 |
| 08-24 08:39 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.994 | $4.0k |
| 08-20 00:47 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | SELL | 0.994 | $122.02 |
| 08-14 02:35 | Iran leadership change by August 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 08-13 12:00 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.9032891401 | $40.00 |
| 08-13 11:59 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | BUY | 0.376932 | $37.69 |
| 08-13 11:59 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? | BUY | 0.71 | $71.00 |
| 08-13 07:51 | Iran leadership change by August 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.70 |
| 08-12 18:08 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.973 | $2.9k |
| 08-12 18:07 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.9k |
| 08-12 13:01 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.2k |
| 08-12 12:56 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.6k |