velksnit
0xfb8b5f24400049f01fba9f628ed2504f8a18eb0b
- Realised P&L
- $-472.50
- Volume
- $22.4k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $90.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.680 | 0.455 | $45.50 | −$22.50 |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.673 | 0.160 | $32.00 | −$102.60 |
| Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.428 | 0.055 | $7.03 | −$47.72 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.029 | $5.99 | −$27.61 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? · Yes | 0.403 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.52 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$101.00at 0.800Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$58.00at 0.420Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?
- +$53.00at 0.785Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$41.08at 0.420Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$38.32at 0.100Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 09:12 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 03-29 10:39 | Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $0.67 |
| 03-13 15:12 | Probable FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.974 | $41.01 |
| 02-22 11:15 | Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B? | SELL | 0.33 | $3.97 |
| 02-19 09:55 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.38 | $13.30 |
| 02-05 18:27 | Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.510352 | $51.04 |
| 02-01 15:32 | Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28? | SELL | 0.0312357168 | $2.65 |
| 02-01 13:56 | Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28? | SELL | 0.02386 | $4.77 |
| 01-29 19:46 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? | BUY | 0.42 | $42.00 |
| 01-21 18:27 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-21? | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $10.00 |
| 01-21 13:21 | Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs BIG Academy (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffs | SELL | 0.7623809524 | $64.04 |
| 01-21 12:02 | Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs BIG Academy (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffs | SELL | 0.8 | $3.20 |
| 01-16 21:19 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $47.96 |
| 01-12 19:14 | Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.73 | $80.30 |
| 01-06 11:57 | Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.68 |