stopgrowing
0xfb83a2228c1b4ec7dd84c4bf95c9b7a3883477ee
- Realised P&L
- $-2.4k
- Volume
- $727.9k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $10.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.105 | $10.7k | −$1.8k |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No | 0.430 | 0.875 | $32.74 | +$16.65 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.207 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.9k |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$605.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.790Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$5.3kat 0.756 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$2.7kat 0.741US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.3kat 0.806US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.564Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-29 04:44 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $2.7k |
| 06-29 04:41 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $53.34 |
| 06-29 00:24 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.61 | $5.49 |
| 06-26 16:40 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.116 | $522.00 |
| 06-26 16:40 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.984 | $521.52 |
| 06-26 16:25 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.115 | $25.85 |
| 06-26 16:25 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.985 | $295.50 |
| 06-26 16:23 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.985 | $197.00 |
| 06-26 16:20 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.115 | $146.03 |
| 06-26 05:15 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.115 | $34.27 |
| 06-26 05:10 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.115 | $51.94 |
| 06-26 05:07 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.114 | $105.21 |
| 06-26 05:07 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.113 | $51.49 |
| 06-26 05:06 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.9836582 | $295.10 |
| 06-26 05:05 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.112 | $115.38 |