supergio
0xfb647436a852a0180b4be9404d19591187f49a67
- Realised P&L
- $-58.66
- Volume
- $4.0k
- Markets traded
- 145
- Open portfolio
- $10.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded145
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026? · Yes | 0.809 | 0.535 | $10.35 | −$5.30 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? · Yes | 0.964 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.46 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? · No | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? · Yes | 0.961 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.27 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.07at 0.776Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 22?
- +$16.69at 0.739Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top global Netflix show this week?
- +$10.87at 0.727Will "Untold: Jail Blazers" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
- +$10.70at 0.732Will "A Quiet Place Part II" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
- +$10.39at 0.747Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 06:48 | Will "I Will Find You" be the top global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 06-15 05:21 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.87 | $40.02 |
| 06-13 12:23 | Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.956 | $13.38 |
| 06-13 07:17 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.94 | $37.59 |
| 06-13 06:40 | Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.963 | $28.89 |
| 06-13 06:35 | Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.965 | $9.65 |
| 06-07 12:29 | Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.964 | $4.82 |
| 06-07 12:29 | Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.964 | $28.92 |
| 06-06 06:26 | Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.96 | $23.97 |
| 06-06 06:26 | Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.97 | $29.10 |
| 05-30 06:50 | Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.81 | $5.66 |
| 05-30 06:31 | Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.95 | $28.50 |
| 05-30 06:30 | Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.983 | $19.66 |
| 05-28 20:57 | Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.96 | $28.79 |
| 05-27 04:46 | Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $0.57 |