0xfb56e9ca8818eac18dba8c079242c5b49df14495
0xfb56e9ca8818eac18dba8c079242c5b49df14495
- Realised P&L
- $-63.46
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $188.43
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? · No | 0.328 | 0.555 | $83.83 | +$34.33 |
| Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.515 | $38.63 | −$15.38 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 14? · No | 0.467 | 0.925 | $34.47 | +$17.08 |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.205 | $31.51 | −$8.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.06at 0.809Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
- +$9.29at 0.848Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 16, 2026?
- +$-14.07at 0.096Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
- +$-71.75at 0.568Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 16:30 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.3277244648 | $49.50 |
| 10-18 05:13 | Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $54.00 |
| 10-16 17:54 | Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.8481685999 | $51.92 |
| 10-16 16:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.033 | $7.18 |
| 10-16 16:28 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.0919070259 | $19.99 |
| 10-16 16:01 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $68.69 |
| 10-16 05:10 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.8009999993 | $55.08 |
| 10-14 18:57 | Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 14? | BUY | 0.4666270807 | $17.39 |
| 10-14 07:51 | Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $20.13 |
| 10-13 19:43 | Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $19.72 |
| 10-13 05:35 | Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5427351716 | $31.90 |
| 10-12 22:22 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.2599999995 | $39.96 |