FTPLalpha
0xfb511c095f69700727ee6aee91b30bb87fefb1b2
- Realised P&L
- $-395.41
- Volume
- $20.3k
- Markets traded
- 576
- Open portfolio
- $0.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded576
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.002 | $0.20 | −$9.80 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$7.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.27at 0.115Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 29?
- +$31.38at 0.150Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12?
- +$20.92at 0.137Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9?
- +$19.97at 0.341Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 14?
- +$14.10at 0.422Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 00:07 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.4007739938 | $7.77 |
| 09-30 20:31 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.1289580182 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 16:07 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.0738399457 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 12:47 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.65 | $12.24 |
| 09-30 06:20 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.23 | $6.97 |
| 09-30 06:01 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.29789 | $5.96 |
| 09-30 04:44 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.530816865 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 03:41 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.369766702 | $6.97 |
| 09-30 03:22 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.3299999924 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 03:19 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 02:43 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.5299999868 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 02:40 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.0321534975 | $4.11 |
| 09-29 23:46 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.0781540025 | $10.00 |
| 09-28 01:31 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.5490195992 | $10.00 |
| 09-24 12:37 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 24? | SELL | 0.0875129534 | $3.04 |