greengasper
0xfb328b94ed05115259bbc48ba8182df1416edb85
- Realised P&L
- $30.4k
- Volume
- $3.04M
- Markets traded
- 1,009
- Open portfolio
- $283.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,009
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.442Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
- +$3.0kat 0.902Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
- +$2.2kat 0.370Israel military action against Iran by Friday?
- +$2.1kat 0.837Iran strike on Israel by Friday?
- +$1.8kat 0.422Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 11:23 | Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18? | BUY | 0.1395504608 | $10.00 |
| 09-18 11:09 | Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18? | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 19:28 | Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999994 | $50.00 |
| 09-17 11:20 | Pakistan military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0307398505 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 19:04 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.894974717 | $160.00 |
| 09-15 19:03 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.9313261427 | $105.34 |
| 09-15 19:03 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.88801184 | $200.00 |
| 09-15 14:24 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9385921118 | $100.00 |
| 09-15 10:13 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.8840766854 | $100.00 |
| 09-15 06:55 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.6212745348 | $24.37 |
| 09-14 19:48 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999988 | $50.00 |
| 09-14 19:47 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4384395126 | $100.00 |
| 09-14 15:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.09 | $11.31 |
| 09-14 15:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.1592039801 | $20.00 |
| 09-14 08:22 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2686913195 | $50.00 |