PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

greengasper

0xfb328b94ed05115259bbc48ba8182df1416edb85

Realised P&L
$40.2k
Volume
$2.87M
Markets traded
957
Open portfolio
$1.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded957
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration56.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration85.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes0.6500.635$1.4k$33.44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes0.2400.245$204.17+$4.17
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? · Yes0.2890.130$22.45$27.55
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026? · No0.8000.007$0.70$79.30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? · No0.0780.001$0.32$49.68
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? · Yes0.3060.000$0.00$41.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET · Up0.5500.000$0.00$10.00
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00$5.00
Will France win on 2026-07-18? · Yes0.5700.000$0.00$150.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET · Up0.2470.000$0.00$30.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET · Up0.3220.000$0.00$200.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET · Up0.4550.000$0.00$50.00
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21? · Yes0.7510.000$0.00$131.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET · Down0.3200.000$0.00$3.20
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? · Yes0.6600.000$0.00$100.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 16:50Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?SELL0.0321172418$52.35
08-02 16:48Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?BUY0.2399999992$200.00
08-02 08:35Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.6680626182$1000.00
08-01 22:12Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.32$100.00
08-01 15:28Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.3799999987$100.00
08-01 13:00Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.350877193$100.00
08-01 13:00Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?BUY0.0784056836$50.00
08-01 12:35Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?BUY0.2895113018$50.00
08-01 11:19Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.2599999985$100.00
08-01 11:17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.2599999985$100.00
08-01 10:50US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.92$296.77
08-01 10:30US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.9299999998$300.00
07-31 21:18US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.93$507.91
07-31 20:04Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.6199999991$200.00
07-31 19:57Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.5979502266$100.00