greengasper
0xfb328b94ed05115259bbc48ba8182df1416edb85
- Realised P&L
- $40.2k
- Volume
- $2.87M
- Markets traded
- 957
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded957
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.442Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
- +$3.0kat 0.902Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
- +$2.2kat 0.370Israel military action against Iran by Friday?
- +$2.1kat 0.837Iran strike on Israel by Friday?
- +$1.8kat 0.422Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 16:50 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | SELL | 0.0321172418 | $52.35 |
| 08-02 16:48 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.2399999992 | $200.00 |
| 08-02 08:35 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.6680626182 | $1000.00 |
| 08-01 22:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.32 | $100.00 |
| 08-01 15:28 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.3799999987 | $100.00 |
| 08-01 13:00 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.350877193 | $100.00 |
| 08-01 13:00 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.0784056836 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 12:35 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? | BUY | 0.2895113018 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 11:19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.2599999985 | $100.00 |
| 08-01 11:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.2599999985 | $100.00 |
| 08-01 10:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $296.77 |
| 08-01 10:30 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.9299999998 | $300.00 |
| 07-31 21:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $507.91 |
| 07-31 20:04 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.6199999991 | $200.00 |
| 07-31 19:57 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.5979502266 | $100.00 |