cristianhobbs
0xfb2e39bf426561eecfff8cb86dbea42ae91889a2
- Realised P&L
- $12.62
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $33.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.845 | $14.44 | +$0.43 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · No | 0.780 | 0.655 | $13.10 | −$2.50 |
| Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 90 to 101 km/h in September? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.625 | $6.16 | −$1.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.63at 0.700Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?
- +$5.17at 0.530Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Wednesday?
- +$4.08at 0.840Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on September 15?
- +$0.21at 0.988Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30?
- +$0.20at 0.994Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:29 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | BUY | 0.998999973 | $13.62 |
| 01-30 15:30 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.15 |
| 01-30 12:58 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.00 |
| 01-30 12:45 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? | BUY | 0.999 | $50.26 |
| 12-30 16:17 | Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.27 |
| 12-30 14:19 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.60 |
| 12-30 13:41 | Will XRP reach $3.20 before 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.31 |
| 12-30 00:43 | Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.02 |
| 12-29 23:34 | Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.57 |
| 12-29 23:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9939999718 | $33.08 |
| 12-29 19:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.44 |
| 10-30 22:31 | Will Google have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.45 |
| 10-30 20:48 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.26 |
| 09-29 12:58 | Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9879999804 | $17.13 |
| 09-29 09:15 | Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.71 |