0xfb12eae3220f8291d17097514ed71e73657991e7
- Realised P&L
- $-0.25
- Volume
- $734.00
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $55.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.570 | 0.925 | $22.20 | +$8.52 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.966 | $13.52 | +$0.50 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.105 | $10.08 | −$6.28 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.920 | $8.28 | +$0.90 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $1.24 | −$0.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.76at 0.500Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
- +$2.66at 0.476Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$1.20at 0.790Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.46at 0.836Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.37at 0.942Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 23:28 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $7.38 |
| 07-13 06:12 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $7.36 |
| 07-12 04:22 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 07-11 11:32 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $5.46 |
| 07-11 05:02 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.17 |
| 06-22 15:02 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.24 |
| 06-22 14:57 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.24 |
| 06-22 14:51 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.00 |
| 06-22 14:43 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 06-22 14:32 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 06-22 13:02 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.10 |
| 06-22 12:48 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.12 |
| 06-22 12:37 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.71 |
| 06-16 16:11 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.61 |
| 06-16 15:25 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |