0xfaee8ab5838b6fefd9a656f18b31d32d20201bc6
0xfaee8ab5838b6fefd9a656f18b31d32d20201bc6
- Realised P&L
- $5.38
- Volume
- $480.62
- Markets traded
- 127
- Open portfolio
- $1.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded127
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 China revenue mix <22%? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.255 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · No | 0.550 | 0.400 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.030 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
- +$6.27at 0.247WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 26?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$3.83at 0.349Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during his rally with Darline Graham?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 06:55 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.7959999331 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 19:31 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 10:02 | Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 China revenue mix <22%? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 00:54 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 13:02 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:50 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 20:40 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 20:36 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6919998588 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 12:35 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 04:34 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 20:34 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 11:48 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 15:48 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 07:31 | Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in September? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |