bearwin
0xfadeac30d08d0910835c6871bdfd141cef3368cf
- Realised P&L
- $-836.54
- Volume
- $57.4k
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $96.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$636.93at 0.518Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins
- +$402.15at 0.066Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$366.40at 0.200Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
- +$260.14at 0.139S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2?
- +$176.61at 0.130Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 07:42 | Will Branimir Jovanović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 14:57 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $14.21 |
| 10-24 13:26 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.054 | $54.00 |
| 09-03 01:53 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 3? | SELL | 0.3210754043 | $15.29 |
| 09-02 05:38 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.4199999899 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 05:37 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.9299999975 | $15.00 |
| 09-02 05:37 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.4199999899 | $10.00 |
| 04-12 09:56 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.39 | $114.53 |
| 04-09 06:25 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.34 | $27.54 |
| 04-03 11:21 | Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.1419990669 | $70.01 |
| 04-03 05:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? | BUY | 0.2651555556 | $117.36 |
| 04-03 04:44 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins | BUY | 0.51 | $2.48 |
| 04-03 04:44 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins | SELL | 0.5 | $7.00 |
| 04-03 04:43 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins | BUY | 0.51 | $173.25 |
| 04-03 02:48 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins | BUY | 0.51 | $495.01 |