sibou
0xfadb03d6dccd8bd12d119c47642613710f09c080
- Realised P&L
- $-114.42
- Volume
- $53.7k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $1.02
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.013 | $1.02 | −$9.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.34at 0.782US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$1.86at 0.790Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
- +$0.88at 0.650Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
- +$0.17at 0.950Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9?
- +$0.14at 0.600Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-12 15:47 | Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999902 | $10.55 |
| 05-12 15:46 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? | SELL | 0.15 | $10.59 |
| 05-01 14:14 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? | BUY | 0.2599999918 | $18.36 |
| 05-01 14:14 | Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $15.71 |
| 03-27 18:17 | Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 03-27 18:15 | Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.962 | $264.19 |
| 03-27 18:15 | Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.963 | $1.2k |
| 03-27 18:11 | No one announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.62 | $21.15 |
| 03-27 17:51 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.6299999912 | $21.49 |
| 03-27 17:51 | Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.965 | $1.5k |
| 03-27 17:50 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.947 | $591.92 |
| 03-27 17:47 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.947 | $107.86 |
| 03-27 17:46 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.948 | $523.33 |
| 03-27 14:58 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.958 | $1.5k |
| 03-27 14:58 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | SELL | 0.7381900082 | $27.04 |