PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xfa2bd8612483e81d84e3ba4465986c22fd14bb8a

Realised P&L
$194.80
Volume
$23.5k
Markets traded
231
Open portfolio
$13.21

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded231
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.2440.075$6.13$13.87
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · Yes0.1260.065$5.16$4.84
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.1290.037$1.45$3.55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes0.0800.007$0.47$4.53

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 19:30Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?SELL0.02$0.11
09-11 20:51Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?BUY0.5599999642$5.00
09-09 22:35US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?SELL0.14$5.39
09-09 22:33US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?SELL0.53$4.49
09-09 21:53US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?BUY0.5899999493$5.00
09-09 21:24US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?SELL0.4394582975$5.11
09-09 21:21US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?BUY0.4299999991$5.00
09-09 21:15US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?SELL0.62$4.84
09-09 21:14US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?BUY0.64$5.00
09-05 10:01Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?BUY0.2075344656$5.00
09-04 22:25Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?BUY0.2599999646$5.00
09-04 22:24Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?BUY0.2599999646$5.00
09-04 22:24Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?BUY0.2599999646$5.00
09-04 14:21US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?SELL0.46$4.62
09-03 14:39US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?SELL0.36$1.12