0xfa2bd8612483e81d84e3ba4465986c22fd14bb8a
- Realised P&L
- $194.80
- Volume
- $23.5k
- Markets traded
- 231
- Open portfolio
- $13.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded231
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.244 | 0.075 | $6.13 | −$13.87 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.065 | $5.16 | −$4.84 |
| Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.037 | $1.45 | −$3.55 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.007 | $0.47 | −$4.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$99.74at 0.182Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
- +$79.07at 0.155US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
- +$70.73at 0.188Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
- +$52.57at 0.328MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$46.08at 0.034Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 19:30 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.11 |
| 09-11 20:51 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999642 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 22:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $5.39 |
| 09-09 22:33 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.53 | $4.49 |
| 09-09 21:53 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5899999493 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 21:24 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.4394582975 | $5.11 |
| 09-09 21:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 21:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.62 | $4.84 |
| 09-09 21:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 10:01 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2075344656 | $5.00 |
| 09-04 22:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 09-04 22:24 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 09-04 22:24 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 09-04 14:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.46 | $4.62 |
| 09-03 14:39 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.36 | $1.12 |