Nigel364
0xfa2bc333d6d26372e7d1064c6fa61ecf67f2c35d
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $479.3k
- Markets traded
- 2,380
- Open portfolio
- $576.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,380
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.105Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- +$958.99at 0.173US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$507.57at 0.585Will the first eaglet hatch on April 11, 2026?
- +$457.26at 0.167Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat?
- +$449.83at 0.242Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 10:15 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $33.54 |
| 06-18 02:59 | Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.1519999835 | $7.00 |
| 06-17 14:47 | Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.84 | $46.66 |
| 06-11 12:55 | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? | BUY | 0.0882352863 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 12:55 | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? | BUY | 0.080156744 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 12:55 | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? | BUY | 0.03876427 | $1.94 |
| 06-05 10:10 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2085106183 | $7.00 |
| 06-05 10:08 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999966 | $10.00 |
| 06-04 22:38 | Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? | BUY | 0.2299999893 | $15.00 |
| 06-04 15:16 | Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? | BUY | 0.2249999906 | $15.00 |
| 06-04 03:23 | Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30? | SELL | 0.99 | $13.07 |
| 06-04 02:06 | Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | SELL | 0.8865071982 | $24.02 |
| 06-04 01:56 | Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30? | SELL | 0.915 | $12.08 |
| 06-01 14:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1299999967 | $30.00 |
| 05-30 13:57 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.599999994 | $20.00 |