tonykakkar
0xfa27d82e59e27cf85d995210cd26f6760ac8d1d3
- Realised P&L
- $-614.26
- Volume
- $65.3k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $104.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · No | 0.490 | 1.000 | $102.00 | +$52.02 |
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.290 | $2.90 | −$3.00 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$378.14at 0.630Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?
- +$300.69at 0.110Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
- +$196.42at 0.690Will Trump say "B2" or "F35" during meeting with Netanyahu?
- +$147.69at 0.536Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?
- +$111.60at 0.220Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 10:01 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | SELL | 0.52 | $301.08 |
| 04-10 15:41 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.55 | $318.45 |
| 04-09 10:49 | Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | SELL | 0.59 | $319.19 |
| 04-07 17:25 | Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | BUY | 0.61 | $330.01 |
| 03-25 15:45 | Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $218.40 |
| 03-22 16:06 | Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $251.16 |
| 03-22 03:12 | Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? | SELL | 0.55 | $79.75 |
| 03-22 03:11 | Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? | SELL | 0.55 | $85.25 |
| 03-21 20:23 | Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? | SELL | 0.55 | $85.80 |
| 03-20 10:02 | Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? | BUY | 0.59 | $269.04 |
| 03-18 17:05 | US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $5.04 |
| 03-18 16:00 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? | SELL | 0.72 | $23.04 |
| 03-17 16:11 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? | BUY | 0.73 | $23.36 |
| 03-17 14:55 | Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference? | BUY | 0.63 | $643.86 |
| 03-16 01:29 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 16 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000? | SELL | 0.36 | $51.48 |