dsk69
0xfa1f9bc61726a0b3d1d2bf12f4685156df4e6a84
- Realised P&L
- $-80.02
- Volume
- $17.2k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $20.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.16at 0.250Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 30?
- +$9.36at 0.024Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?
- +$9.33at 0.016Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
- +$9.08at 0.024Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
- +$7.75at 0.024Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 06:55 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 21? | BUY | 0.0862143787 | $5.96 |
| 10-20 06:07 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 20? | BUY | 0.1683168308 | $10.00 |
| 02-11 16:31 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $7.44 |
| 02-11 16:30 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.066 | $4.60 |
| 02-11 16:29 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.023 | $1.98 |
| 02-11 16:28 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.53 |
| 02-11 06:39 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.0251923724 | $1.90 |
| 02-11 06:32 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.1209999844 | $6.00 |
| 02-11 06:32 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.0860179492 | $6.00 |
| 02-11 06:32 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.0696517306 | $6.00 |
| 11-13 07:14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 13? | BUY | 0.1696969697 | $3.50 |
| 11-13 07:12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 13? | BUY | 0.0554809768 | $3.00 |
| 11-13 07:12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 13? | BUY | 0.0133560618 | $2.00 |
| 11-13 06:44 | Will the government shutdown end November 14? | SELL | 0.0312327872 | $8.56 |
| 11-12 11:12 | Will the government shutdown end November 14? | BUY | 0.027 | $4.70 |