0xfa1387d612e9157f8f2bca1ebdeaad564b55e609
0xfa1387d612e9157f8f2bca1ebdeaad564b55e609
- Realised P&L
- $-13.93
- Volume
- $145.71
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $2.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21? · Up | 0.620 | 0.765 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? · Yes | 0.691 | 0.725 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.50at 0.450Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of August 10 2026?
- +$2.31at 0.308Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?
- +$1.89at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
- +$1.36at 0.602Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.15at 0.622Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 08:40 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 00:37 | Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.6909995239 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 16:33 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 15:25 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 07:24 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 23:23 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 14:16 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 06:15 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 10:06 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 13:29 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2019999612 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 05:26 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:47 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:47 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:47 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 21:58 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |