Deni.ES
0xfa091382ac65dacf39f15ddc63ca8adf82aaef0a
- Realised P&L
- $-8.8k
- Volume
- $673.2k
- Markets traded
- 3,344
- Open portfolio
- $67.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,344
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.395 | $43.89 | +$23.89 |
| Will Seattle have less than 1 inch of precipitation in September? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.060 | $10.83 | −$36.17 |
| Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in September? · Yes | 0.326 | 0.325 | $9.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in September? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.043 | $2.61 | −$7.39 |
| Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-07-16? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.305 | $0.63 | −$0.36 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 24? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$8.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.6kat 0.068Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
- +$2.9kat 0.250Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
- +$1.8kat 0.176Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
- +$894.72at 0.306Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
- +$441.96at 0.942Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 06:44 | Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 89 km/h or below in September? | SELL | 0.9722315422 | $22.25 |
| 09-23 20:40 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 24? | BUY | 0.1852935438 | $9.00 |
| 09-17 15:34 | Will Seattle have less than 1 inch of precipitation in September? | BUY | 0.2199999979 | $17.00 |
| 09-16 12:39 | Will Seattle have less than 1 inch of precipitation in September? | BUY | 0.3539953517 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 12:38 | Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September? | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 08:10 | Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in September? | BUY | 0.1665011257 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 21:38 | Will Seattle have less than 1 inch of precipitation in September? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 18:34 | Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in September? | BUY | 0.3261288428 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 18:33 | Will Seattle have less than 1 inch of precipitation in September? | BUY | 0.229999994 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 11:48 | Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0334696913 | $9.00 |
| 09-11 08:55 | Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 89 km/h or below in September? | BUY | 0.8734014514 | $20.00 |
| 09-07 20:02 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on September 7? | BUY | 0.0681000093 | $5.00 |
| 09-07 14:01 | Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 7? | BUY | 0.0778843024 | $5.00 |
| 09-07 10:16 | Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1184600073 | $8.00 |
| 09-07 06:43 | Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1304780769 | $10.00 |