Regulus12
0xf98ea3ffd686eb7e6a1e4d2d615cd614db096bd2
- Realised P&L
- $-674.49
- Volume
- $23.6k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $8.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.018 | $8.75 | −$41.25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8PM ET · Down | 0.428 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? · Down | 0.133 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1PM ET · Down | 0.817 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$290.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$350.37at 0.488Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2PM ET
- +$111.29at 0.310US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
- +$74.42at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down on January 17?
- +$59.88at 0.853Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12PM ET
- +$59.04at 0.307Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-04 21:44 | Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? | SELL | 0.0969306931 | $14.69 |
| 03-03 15:43 | Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? | BUY | 0.7260397827 | $110.00 |
| 02-25 04:05 | Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.98 | $115.29 |
| 02-24 14:39 | Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.6799999993 | $80.00 |
| 02-10 22:46 | Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.0350208105 | $85.19 |
| 02-10 22:32 | Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0369999996 | $90.00 |
| 02-06 16:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? | BUY | 0.1332046279 | $20.00 |
| 02-06 15:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? | SELL | 0.2905737338 | $32.41 |
| 02-06 15:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? | BUY | 0.1792828621 | $20.00 |
| 02-06 14:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? | SELL | 0.4931315532 | $70.55 |
| 02-06 13:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? | BUY | 0.698999998 | $100.00 |
| 02-05 18:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1PM ET | BUY | 0.817406847 | $290.00 |
| 02-05 18:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET | SELL | 0.999 | $292.59 |
| 02-05 17:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.9559999999 | $280.00 |
| 02-03 17:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 3? | SELL | 0.999 | $288.59 |