johndickson
0xf98d0da232c440b3e0de258dd6cb3c3301a6e160
- Realised P&L
- $36.14
- Volume
- $11.7k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $64.86
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.510 | 1.000 | $19.67 | +$9.64 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 28? · No | 0.550 | 1.000 | $19.64 | +$8.84 |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-10-03? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.545 | $17.36 | +$1.11 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30? · Yes | 0.650 | 1.000 | $8.19 | +$2.87 |
| Map Handicap: LOUD (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) · EDward Gaming | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.28at 0.530Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
- +$0.38at 0.971Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
- +$0.22at 0.987Russian strike on Poland by September 30?
- +$0.18at 0.990Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?
- +$0.14at 0.674Liverpool wins the Premier League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:20 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.05 |
| 01-31 13:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999285 | $11.98 |
| 01-30 15:10 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $8.25 |
| 01-30 13:19 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.81 |
| 01-30 12:41 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.997 | $30.75 |
| 12-30 16:00 | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979998955 | $5.35 |
| 12-30 10:46 | Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.67 |
| 12-29 20:54 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.36 |
| 12-29 20:45 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999682 | $11.62 |
| 12-29 19:47 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $17.30 |
| 12-29 19:33 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | BUY | 0.998999975 | $16.57 |
| 10-30 23:37 | Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.18 |
| 10-30 22:34 | Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.13 |
| 10-30 20:39 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | BUY | 0.99 | $18.28 |
| 09-29 18:30 | Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.64 |