guDy
0xf97984919ad0b09cae665fff1dcc529cbd0e0d2d
- Realised P&L
- $-246.57
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $6.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET · Down | 0.426 | 1.000 | $3.19 | +$1.83 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET · Down | 0.561 | 1.000 | $1.70 | +$0.75 |
| Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.011 | $1.07 | −$8.93 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.001 | $0.24 | −$110.16 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET · Down | 0.395 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.41 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET · Down | 0.322 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.56 |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$71.03 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET · Up | 0.484 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.27 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET · Down | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.08at 0.520Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31?
- +$18.76at 0.680Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?
- +$17.10at 0.455Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5?
- +$16.19at 0.058Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor?
- +$11.61at 0.790Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-06 03:59 | Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.09797198 | $10.00 |
| 02-17 10:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $1.94 |
| 02-17 10:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $0.97 |
| 02-17 10:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $1.94 |
| 02-17 10:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | BUY | 0.579999826 | $0.97 |
| 02-17 09:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | SELL | 0.82 | $1.92 |
| 02-17 09:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $0.97 |
| 02-17 09:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 02-17 09:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.97 |
| 02-17 09:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $0.98 |
| 02-17 09:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $4.95 |
| 02-17 09:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.3499999842 | $9.74 |
| 12-15 20:03 | Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.009 | $20.53 |
| 11-26 19:35 | Will Jason Koon win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.50 |
| 11-14 04:24 | Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%? | SELL | 0.984 | $50.46 |