sdger4yh
0xf969ea6ac0df1dd4cea32505dcbb7b3ce4c11ec6
- Realised P&L
- $4.03
- Volume
- $76.03
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $7.51
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 10? · No | 0.997 | 0.987 | $7.51 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.71at 0.632Penn State vs. Northwestern: O/U 41.5
- +$0.35at 0.962Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 8?
- +$0.30at 0.980Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of May 25 2026?
- +$0.26at 0.952Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of July 6 2026?
- +$0.24at 0.988Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 12:23 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.997 | $7.59 |
| 10-06 14:52 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.74 |
| 09-28 00:39 | Penn State vs. Northwestern: O/U 41.5 | BUY | 0.62 | $4.57 |
| 07-07 14:15 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of July 6 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $5.19 |
| 07-04 12:26 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 5? | BUY | 0.9920178571 | $11.11 |
| 06-22 10:46 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 23? | BUY | 0.9900395257 | $5.01 |
| 06-18 07:29 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 19? | BUY | 0.987 | $18.95 |
| 06-12 01:05 | Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) | BUY | 0.998 | $11.97 |
| 06-07 03:38 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 8? | BUY | 0.96 | $8.64 |
| 05-27 12:51 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of May 25 2026? | BUY | 0.9793333333 | $14.69 |